UFC White House Underdogs: Best Long-Shot Value Picks

Underdog	Moneyline	Payout	Notes
Ciryl Gane	+105 (live on select books)	$105 on $100	The cleanest +EV bet on the card. Lateral footwork removes Pereira's calf kick and forces a long jab fight. Model: 54% true win rate.
Justin Gaethje	+180	$180 on $100	Only path to value is by KO/TKO at +400. Don't take the straight moneyline — the implied 36% overstates Gaethje's projected 27%.
Michael Chandler	+120	$120 on $100	Heavily reliant on a first-round explosion. Live dog only on the early portion of round one; fade past the 2:00 mark.
Derrick Lewis	+140	$140 on $100	One-punch equity vs. a wrestler-grinder. Buy-the-knockout proposition at +260 is the cleaner expression.
Aiemann Zahabi	+340	$340 on $100	Pure lottery ticket. Boxing is credible but O'Malley's reach is fatal — only play in small dog-stack parlays.

Underdog

Moneyline

Payout

Notes

Ciryl Gane

+105 (live on select books)

$105 on $100

The cleanest +EV bet on the card. Lateral footwork removes Pereira's calf kick and forces a long jab fight. Model: 54% true win rate.

Justin Gaethje

+180

$180 on $100

Only path to value is by KO/TKO at +400. Don't take the straight moneyline — the implied 36% overstates Gaethje's projected 27%.

Michael Chandler

+120

$120 on $100

Heavily reliant on a first-round explosion. Live dog only on the early portion of round one; fade past the 2:00 mark.

Derrick Lewis

+140

$140 on $100

One-punch equity vs. a wrestler-grinder. Buy-the-knockout proposition at +260 is the cleaner expression.

Aiemann Zahabi

+340

$340 on $100

Pure lottery ticket. Boxing is credible but O'Malley's reach is fatal — only play in small dog-stack parlays.

Best dog parlays

Two-leg: Gane + Hokit (+395)

The two cleanest underdog moneylines on the card. Both are styles-make-fights edges: Gane's footwork against Pereira, Hokit's athleticism against an aging Lewis.

Three-leg dog stack: Gane + Hokit + Chandler (+880)

Adds Chandler's one-shot equity. Hit rate drops; payout is the point.

Why we don't include Gaethje or Zahabi

Both fighters' realistic paths to victory are knockout-only. Building a moneyline parlay around them is overpaying for an outcome that's already cheaper to buy on the method-of-victory prop board.

Bankroll math

For most recreational bettors, no underdog play on this card should exceed 1% of a session bankroll, and no parlay should exceed 0.5%. The reasoning is unchanged from any +EV approach: variance is the cost of the edge, and the only way to survive it is staking discipline. Full bet-sizing in our betting guide.

For the chalk side, see the favorites page. For current lines and movement, see UFC White House odds.